Monterey Peninsula Real Estate Market Update: Q3 2026
Monterey Peninsula Real Estate Market Update: Q3 2026
Single-family sales across nine Monterey Peninsula areas, July–September 2026, with my take on what’s behind them.
- Source: Compass Q3 2026 report
- MLS via Broker Metrics
- Single-family
Quick answer: In Q3 2026, Pebble Beach closed 23 single-family sales at a $2,815,970 median, and homes sold in 50 days on average. Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel West closed 27 sales worth $107.13 million, with fewer sales but firmer prices at the top. Carmel Valley’s median rose 21.02% year over year to $2,015,000. Source: Compass Q3 2026 report (MLS via Broker Metrics, single-family).
What I’m seeing
Inventory is slowly picking back up, but the lock-in effect is still very real. Plenty of owners don’t want to give up the low mortgage rate they already have.
Going into 2026, the general forecast was for mortgage rates to fall into the low-to-mid 5% range by late 2026. The opposite happened, and rates came under upward pressure. That has hit the most rate-sensitive buyers hardest, and they are usually at the lower end of the market. Buyers at the top of the market rely less on financing, and it shows. In Q3, 9 of the 23 Pebble Beach sales closed above $3 million, Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel West had 15 sales at $3 million or more, and Seaside’s average sale price rose 16.31% while its median rose 5.07%.
It isn’t one story everywhere, though. Pacific Grove had no sales above $3 million this quarter, which pulled its prices down. Monterey, on the other hand, had its busiest third quarter since 2021, mostly between $1 million and $2 million.
Q3 2026 by area
All figures: Compass Q3 2026 report (MLS via Broker Metrics, single-family). Single-family closed sales, July–September 2026, compared with Q2 2026 and Q3 2025 where noted. Numbers marked “chart-read” were read off the report’s charts and are approximate. Compass calls all its figures approximate.
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel West
- 27 closed sales (about 40 in Q3 2025, chart-read), the lowest third-quarter count in the report’s history
- $107.13 million in sales volume
- Median sale price about $3.23 million (chart-read), up from about $2.60 million in Q3 2025
- Average days on market: 52
- Price mix: 6 sales at $5 million or more, 9 at $3–5 million, 7 at $2–3 million, 5 at $1–2 million
Fewer sales, higher prices. Compass says both the median and the average rose against last quarter and last year, with buyers concentrated in the higher price ranges. Compass’s area here includes Carmel Point, Carmel Woods and Hatton Fields.
Greater Carmel (east of Highway 1)
- 9 closed sales, the most of any quarter in 2026
- $18,969,000 in sales volume
- Median sale price $2,000,000; average $2,100,000
More sales, mostly between $1.4 million and $3 million, and prices settling after a pricier spring.
Carmel Highlands & Big Sur
- Year to date (January–September 2026): 17 sales, down 29.17% from 24
- Year-to-date volume $107.37 million, up 0.66% from $106.66 million
- Year-to-date average sale price $6,315,735, up 42.11% from $4,444,158
- Q3 median about $5.38 million (chart-read)
Fewer sales but much higher prices, driven by buyers at $3 million and above. Homes also took longer to sell.
Pebble Beach
- 23 closed sales, the most for a third quarter in six years
- $104,890,000 in sales volume
- Median sale price $2,815,970; average $4.56 million
- Average days on market: 50, down from 87 in Q2
- 9 of 23 sales (39.13%) closed above $3 million; 4 closed above $5 million
Faster sales and steady volume. The median eased slightly from earlier 2026 highs, and the $2–3 million range was the busiest.
Carmel Valley
- 28 closed sales
- $72,619,000 in sales volume, up 3.27% from $70,322,500 in Q3 2025
- Median sale price $2,015,000, up 21.02% year over year
Higher prices with slightly fewer sales. Homes took noticeably longer to sell.
Pacific Grove
- 31 closed sales
- $42,685,125 in sales volume
- Median sale price $1,370,000 (down 9.81% from Q2 and 4.86% year over year); average $1,376,940
- Average days on market: 61
There were no sales above $3 million this quarter, and 67.7% of sales fell between $1 million and $2 million. That mix pulled both the median and the average down.
Monterey
- 54 closed sales, the most for a third quarter since 2021
- $79.51 million in sales volume
- Median sale price $1,296,750, up 8.51% from Q2 ($1.195 million) but below last year’s Q3 high of $1.44 million
- Average days on market: 47
- Year to date: 134 sales and $195,658,700 in volume
Busy, with most of the activity between $1 million and $2 million.
Marina
- 40 closed sales
- $41.97 million in sales volume, up 37.9% year over year
- Median sale price $985,000, up 9.44% year over year
- Average days on market: 64
More sales and higher prices.
Seaside
- 34 closed sales
- $34,738,400 in sales volume
- Median sale price $808,001 (up 1.25% from Q2 and 5.07% year over year)
- Average sale price $1.02 million, up 16.31% year over year
- 4 sales between $2 million and $3 million
The average rose much faster than the median, because Seaside had more high-end sales than usual.
How these numbers differ from my stats pages
- Time period: this update covers one calendar quarter (July–September 2026). My stats pages focus on the last 12 months, with monthly history back to 2002.
- Area boundaries: Compass’s “Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel West” includes Carmel Point, Carmel Woods and Hatton Fields. My Carmel-by-the-Sea stats cover the town only, and those neighborhoods are on my Carmel area stats page.
- Method: a quarter’s median is calculated differently from the 12-month figures on my stats pages, so the two won’t match exactly.
- Same source underneath: both come from MLS single-family sales. Add Compass’s two Carmel areas together and you get the same Q3 2026 total as my two Carmel stats pages.
For one area’s full history, use the stats pages. For the quarter’s big picture across the Peninsula, use this page.
Frequently asked questions
How did the Monterey Peninsula housing market do in Q3 2026?
According to the Compass Q3 2026 report (MLS via Broker Metrics, single-family), the quarter was mixed. Carmel-by-the-Sea had fewer sales at higher prices, Pebble Beach had its most third-quarter sales in six years and homes sold faster, and Monterey, Marina and Seaside recorded strong sales volume. Pacific Grove prices eased because there were no sales above $3 million.
What was the median home price in Pebble Beach in Q3 2026?
$2,815,970 across 23 single-family sales, with an average of $4.56 million, according to the Compass Q3 2026 report (MLS via Broker Metrics, single-family).
Why don’t these numbers match the stats pages on this site?
This update covers one calendar quarter (July–September 2026) and uses Compass’s area boundaries. My stats pages cover the last 12 months and use tighter boundaries, so Carmel-by-the-Sea there means the town only. Both come from the same MLS sales.
Is inventory rising on the Monterey Peninsula?
The Compass report doesn’t include inventory figures. In my own day-to-day work, I’m seeing inventory slowly pick back up, though many owners are still holding on to their low mortgage rates.
Questions about your part of the Peninsula?
Source: Compass Q3 2026 report (MLS via Broker Metrics, single-family). Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Inventory comments are my own observations; the report doesn’t include inventory figures. Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California.